Quantifying The Gap: Simulation on the impact of moving from annual to hourly renewable energy matching.

Most companies are matching their energy consumption with renewable energy on an annual basis.

This implies that you can claim 100% renewable energy use on Christmas Eve (when it's dark outside), by referring to energy produced in the summer by a solar panel. 

You can ask yourself, is this enough? Our answer: no.

Why? Because this method overlooks the fact that energy generation, especially from intermittent renewable sources like solar and wind, can be highly variable throughout the day and year (seasons yo!).

In our recent webinar (🎬 you can watch it via the link below), we discussed the paradigm shift towards hourly matching. This may significantly enhance the focus of sustainability efforts when it comes to renewable energy.

Hourly Renewable Energy Matching?!

Hourly renewable energy matching is the process of ensuring that the amount of energy consumed is equivalent to the amount of renewable energy generated on an hourly basis.

Jonas introduces the concept in basic terms in a short video.

Simulating Six Scenarios

To understand the true impact of moving to hourly renewable energy matching, we ran some simulations using an industrial energy consumption profile, a solar PV profile (Belgium), and a wind profile (Belgium, off-shore). See the graph below.

The six simulated scenarios were the following:

1. Consumption only (10 GWh)
2. Consumption (10 GWh), matched with solar PV production (10 GWh)
3. Consumption (10 GWh), matched with wind production (10 GWh)
4. Consumption (10 GWh), matched with a mix of solar PV production (5 GWh) and wind production (5 GWh)
5. Consumption (10 GWh), matched with a mix of solar PV production (5 GWh) and wind production (5 GWh), plus a 1 MWh BESS system
6. Consumption (10 GWh), matched with a mix of solar PV production (5 GWh) and wind production (5 GWh), plus a 5 MWh BESS system

The Gap can get quite big

The simulation revealed that when shifting to hourly matching:

• The match rate drop can be big!
  • From 100% (annual matching) to 37% (hourly matching; scenario 2), when considering same-volume solar PV as sole production source. That's a 63% gap.
  • The reduction is less dramatic, 38%, when considering the wind profile.
• Mixing different sources and adding storage helps. Scenario 6 reached a 75% hourly matching score; just a 25% gap.
• The impact of further granularization of the matching is not too crazy. Typically, when moving from hourly matching to 15-minute based matching, the match rate drops with 3 to 5%.

What does this mean?

While annual matching might give the impression of 100% renewable consumption, the reality is far more nuanced and less optimized.

The transition to hourly matching shows a more transparent and accurate picture of how much renewable energy is actually being used in real-time.

Closing the gap

The data suggests that a combination of diverse renewable sources, alongside advancements in energy storage, can significantly close the gap between renewable energy production and consumption on an hourly basis.

We have written a separate blog post on how to shape your 24/7 Renewable Energy Matching Strategy. Read it here.

Conclusion

The potential for enhancing the current standard approach to tracking renewable energy usage is undeniable.

Adopting hourly matching could unlock the path towards a more sustainable energy future.

While it presents challenges, we believe that with a well-defined strategy in place, these obstacles can be conquered.